Springfield tax fight energizes state GOP

by Steve Huntley via the Chicago Sun-Times
July 28, 2009

For years the conventional wisdom has been it didn't make much difference which party held power in Springfield because Illinois Democrats and Republicans pretty much operated alike, in tandem and to their mutual benefit. So a lot of people, myself included, were surprised Republicans held firm and didn't go along with Gov. Pat Quinn's demand for a 50 percent increase in the state income tax.

I fully expected moderate Republicans at some point would cave in to pressure from the governor, state-funded interest groups, political calculations based on Illinois' status as a blue state, and House Speaker Michael Madigan's ploy to blame the GOP for any severe budget cuts hitting human service agencies.

But Republicans stood their ground. And, with big Democratic majorities in both houses, voters didn't buy the snake oil that the GOP was responsible for fiscal chaos in Springfield. "For the first time in this state, people are starting to see a clear distinction between Republicans and Democrats," asserted House Minority Leader Tom Cross of Oswego in a recent interview.

The reason, Cross said, is the strategy the GOP adopted in Springfield early this year when the income tax proposal seemed to monopolize policy discussions in the capital. His House Republican Organization partnered with the Illinois Policy Institute, a nonpartisan free-market research group, to focus on the spending side of state government. Spending in the last decade has risen by 39 percent after accounting for inflation.

The GOP position was that discussion of a tax hike wasn't even on the table, and they demanded much needed fixes such as controls on spending, a commission to find duplicated, wasteful and obsolete state programs, and reforms in paying for Medicaid and the under-funded state pensions.

Republicans gained leverage when Democrats failed during the regular session to enact a tax hike and the Legislature went into overtime, where a supermajority is required to pass tax increases. Democrats don't have that in the House. The next regular session starts in January. Speculation has it Democratic legislators will know then what kind of primary challenges they face and, if the outlook is favorable, Madigan and they may be willing to raise taxes.

Regardless of how that turns out, Cross believes the GOP's new identity will play well in the 2010 elections among voters he sees as upset about the economy and spending, the Rod Blagojevich scandal, seven years of one-party incompetence in Springfield and Cook County Board President Todd Stroger's sales tax increase.

Republicans would have to win 12 seats to take the House. "There are going to be 15 or 20 races we will push," said Cross. One GOP strategist counts 16 seats that in the last three election cycles the party lost by 2 or 3 percentage points. "It's unbelievable the number of people who want to run," said Cross, though he didn't offer any names. "This is the best year we've had in recruiting -- people are disgusted, they see an opportunity, they think they can win."

He expects open seats as some Democratic lawmakers, "frustrated with what's going on in the House" and the Democratic scandals, decide not to seek reelection

Cross figures funding 15 to 20 races would cost $5 million. "We don't have $5 million at this point," he conceded. But he spoke optimistically of "people being aggressive about wanting to give us money." Still, he said, "Maybe we can't fund every one of those races, but if there's a trend and there's a wave [in throw-the-bums-out voting], maybe the tail end of that 15 to 20 can jump on that wave." He said GOP poll numbers are better than in 1993 before the big Republican year of 1994.

Helping form that GOP wave will be the U.S. Senate candidacy of Mark Kirk. "We haven't had someone that competitive at the top of the ticket in a long time."

Perhaps the ace in the hole for Republicans is the pay-to-play trial of Democrat Blagojevich. It's set to start in June, so it will be fresh in the memory of voters. Comment at suntimes.com.